Two P's in Decision Making

When faced with a decision it is often helpful to look at the two P's for each of the decision's potential choices. The first P being possible outcomes for the choices. This is a fairly common step in decision making mental models. It can be manifest in the old stand-by of the pros and cons list, yet ch a list falls short of providing a full picture. The possible outcomes one may think of will no doubt include the best possible outcome, a worst case outcome, and a plethora of in-between possibilities. It is at this point that the decision making process can go awry, as cognitive distortion and bias may subconsciously or consciously influence our decisions without accounting for how likely any of those outcomes truly are. This is how one can make a decision based on potentially dire outcome that may have only a marginal chance of occurrence. That's where a second P for decision making comes in: probability. Each potential outcome should be assigned a potential probability for occurrence. One can then select a choice that has the most likely favorable outcome.